« back
Room
Seezimmer 4
Friday, September 14  »  13:00 - 14:15
Symposium 22
Active risk management in the decision process: the role of risk-defusing operators
Host
Odilo W. Huber (University of Fribourg)
Chair
Odilo W. Huber (University of Fribourg)
Discussant
Ulrich Hoffrage (University of Lausanne )
Most theories on risky decision making postulate expected outcomes and the probabilities of their future occurrence as central factors determining choice. Empirically, these factors have shown to be influential in innumerable experiments with gambling tasks or tasks that are pre-structured like gambles. In experiments where decision makers are allowed to actively search information in quasi-realistic risky scenarios, however, a different picture emerges: few decision makers search for probability information, but many search for risk defusing operators (RDOs): An RDO is an action anticipated by the decision maker to be performed in addition to an available alternative in order to decrease the risk (for an overview see O. Huber, 2007). The symposium introduction presents the experimental process tracing paradigm developed for the research on RDOs (method of active information search, AIS; O. Huber, R. Wider, & O.W. Huber, 1997), and an overview over factors that influence search and acceptance of RDOs. The papers report new experiments on different aspects of RDOs.
Speakers
Odilo W. Huber
Introduction
Authors
Odilo W. Huber (University of Fribourg)
The symposium introduction presents the experimental process tracing paradigm developed for the research on RDOs (method of active information search, AIS; O. Huber, R. Wider, & O.W. Huber, 1997), and an overview over factors that influence search and acceptance of RDOs.
Christian Gröschner
Risk defusing and temporal distance
Authors
Christian Gröschner (University of Fribourg)
Risk defusing and temporal distance



Temporal distance changes people´s responses to future events by changing the way people mentally represents those events. The greater the temporal distance, the more likely are events to be represented in terms of a few abstract features that convey the perceived essence of the event rather than in terms of more concrete and incidental details of the event (high- vs. low-level construal; Trope & Liberman, 2003). Because high-level construals contain less incidental and contextual features, distant future events are often perceived with greater confidence. According to these findings we suggest that changes in temporal distance may change the mental representation of risky situations and the perception of risk. We expect that changes in mental representation of risk in distant future events result in changes of people’s decision behaviour and their searching behaviour for RDO´s or the acceptance of given RDO´s compared to near future events.
In one experiment decision makers decided in two quasi-realistic scenarios with two Alternatives with one RDO each. The scenarios varied in the temporal distance of the event. Subjects rated the expected success and their confidence of the RDO in the chosen alternative.
Oswald Huber
Justification pressure in risky decision making: Effect on risk defusing behavior.
Authors
Oswald Huber (University of Fribourg)
Chantal Michel (University of Fribourg)
Tiana Nicolet (University of Fribourg)
A decision maker decides under justification pressure if he or she knows in advance that the decision has to be justified afterwards. The presented experiment investigates the effect of justification pressure on the process of risky decision making and in particular on the active search for information about consequences and risk defusing operators (RDOs).
60 non-students had to come to a decision in a quasi-realistic medical scenario. Half of the participants decided without justification pressure, the other half decided under justification pressure and had to write a justification text afterwards. Information search was operationalized with the Method of Active Information Search. Dependent variables were the searched-for information units about consequences, probabilities and RDOs. The justification texts were analyzed also.
Our hypotheses were confirmed: Under justification pressure decision maker searched more often for RDOs. They searched more information altogether and in particular for the alternative that was not chosen.
Marianne Holler
Risk Defusing in Decisions Under Promotion and Prevention Focus
Authors
Marianne Holler (University of Vienna (A))
Erich Kirchler (University of Vienna (A))
Pia Palkovich (University of Vienna (A))
Oswald Huber (University of Vienna (A))
In a laboratory experiment, 183 participants worked on three risky decision scenarios by Huber and Huber (2003). Each scenario described a potentially dangerous situation which could be defused by two acts, the so-called risk defusing operators (RDOs). The regulatory focus of a person, which was manipulated before working on the scenarios, affected the participants’ choices of RDOs. Prevention-focused people, who aim at minimizing losses and who are risk-averse, mostly opted for pre-event RDOs which prevent negative events in the run-up. Promotion-focused people, who aim at maximising gains and who are ready to take a risk, preferred post-event RDOs (worst case plans) which only have to be applied in case of a negative event. Moreover, under a prevention focus, people evaluated potential damage that might occur if the risk is not defused as more negative than people under promotion focus.
Keywords: risky decision, risk-defusing operators, regulatory focus, promotion, prevention
« back